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dam-l Industry mags on Epupa/LS
The following articles are from two Hydropower industry publications. The
first appeared in "International Water Power and Dam Construction," January
1999, while the second was in Hydropower and Dams, Issue 1, 1999. Note the
second article's contradictions on the project's economics.
Epupa Decision Due "First Quarter 1999"
A decision on the site for a dam and hydro power plant in Namibia will be
made in the first quarter of this year, according to Paulinus Clark,
Director of Energy at Namibia's Ministry of Mines and Energy. The two sites
under consideration--Epupa and Baynes--have been the subject of a
feasibility study which was handed over to Namibia in December. Two sites
on the Kunene river were examined in the study, which was financed Norway's
NORAD and the Swedish Development Corporation, and carried out by
Burmeister and Partners. They are close to the Epupa Falls, and some 40km
upstream at Baynes. Clark said the study found both projects to be
'feasible from the technical, environmental, socioeconomic and financial
points of view.' Of the two, he said that the study found Epupa to be
technically and financially superior, but it raised more environmental
concerns and around 1,000 people would have to be relocated (there have
already been protests from environmental campaigners over the site); Baynes
was smaller, he said, and technically and financially inferior, but the
plant raised fewer environmental problems. It would only require relocation
of 100 people, for example.
One important problem with the Baynes option is that the dam is very small
and will not impound a great deal of water. Instead, according to Clark,
the project relies on the Gove dam which is upstream, some 7-800km inside
Angola. The dam was built in 1976 but was later destroyed by the UNITA
rebels. There would be a larger question mark over how much rehabilitation
would be required, Clark said, and implementing the repairs. In contrast,
the Epupa plan included a large dam which would impound up to three years
water in a 380 sq.km. reservoir.
Whichever option is chosen the dam must be planned in cooperation with
neighbouring Angola, Clark said, and when the site decision had been made
it would be ratified by a bilateral agreement between Namibia and Angola. A
Joint Technical Commission is already in place to coordinate and develop
the project.
The feasibility studies for the next phase will be funded by the Namibian
government, but Clark is clear that this is where the country's position as
sole investor will end. Namibia cannot afford to build the plant, Clark
says, and it wants to invite foreign investors to develop the plant as a
joint venture project with Namibia and Angola. Namibia's power company will
participate as a shareholder, he said, but not necessarily a majority
owner.
Once the site has been agreed, social and environmental impact studies are
expected to continue for two years or so. Specification, tendering and
financial planning are expected to be followed by a construction phase of
five years. In the end, Clark says, investors could expect to see the plant
up and running in around 2010.
(NOTE FROM IRN: At a recent hydropower industry conference, we heard from
dam-industry insiders that governments often have unrealistic expectations
about what projects are fundable, believing that the industry will flock to
their projects and want to pick up lots of risk over them. So while
Namibian gov't spokesmen are making it sound like it will be easy to
attract investors, do not let it alarm you. There is still no indication
that this project will be fundable or attract investors.)
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>From Hydropower and Dams (Issue 1, 1999):
Namibia's longstanding plans to develop its hydropower resources have been
given a boost with the publication of a report which claims that the
development of a hydroelectric plant offers one of the cheapest longterm
options for increasing Namibian electricity supplies and ensuring security
of supply.
The Namang international consortium of consultants, which worked on a
technical and environmental study on the proposed Kunene hydroelectric
project, handed the 21-volume final report to authorities on 4 December.
The Kunene hydro project, which would involve the construction of a 300MW
scheme at either Epupa or a site in the Baynes mountains on the lower
Kunene river, has so far met with strong opposition from environmental
groups and local tribes.
The feasibility study carried out by a consortium of Angolan, Namibian,
Norwegian and Swedish consultants, known as Namang, acknowledges that it
does not include any specific agreed measures to minimize the impact of the
project on the Himba communities of the dam area, which it blames on the
Himba's vote of no confidence in the political processes, accompanying the
study, in both Angola and Namibia.
The report reveals, however, that dams at either Baynes or Epupa would
prove among the most economically viable projects currently under
consideration, even accounting for upward adjustments to the cost of the
scheme's two options, to a total of US$542.81 million for the Epupa site
and US$554.38 million for the Baynes site.
The Namang group estimates that the levelised cost of electricity generated
from the Baynes scheme would be US$48/MWh, on the assumption that the Gove
dam in Angola, which is intended to regulate the flow of the Kunene river,
would be operational. The costs of power would rise to US$66/MWh if the
Gove dam were not working.
Power generated by the Epupa hydrow scheme would be even cheaper, with
power output costing an estimated US$45/MWh with the Gove dam in operation,
and US$46/MWh without Gove.
The development of one of the proposed hydro projects in the short term
seems unlikely as neither can match the US$18/MWh that Namibia currently
pays for importing power from South Africa.
However, in the medium-term the situation could change with the import
price forecast to rise to at least US$30/MWh by 2010, according to the
report. Moreover, the dependence on large-scale power imports raises the
question of security of supply, especially once South African electricity
supply and demand come into balance in the year 2005.
end
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Lori Pottinger, Director, Southern Africa Program,
and Editor, World Rivers Review
International Rivers Network
1847 Berkeley Way, Berkeley, California 94703, USA
Tel. (510) 848 1155 Fax (510) 848 1008
http://www.irn.org
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