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DAM-L Worldwatch on Hydrological Poverty/LS (fwd)
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Date: Wed, 6 Dec 2000 12:02:05 -0800
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From: lori@irn.org (Lori Pottinger)
Subject: Worldwatch on Hydrological Poverty/LS
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Date: Thu, 30 Nov 2000 08:19:38 -0500
Water shortages are emerging as the demand for water in many countries
simply outruns the supply
Population Growth Sentencing Millions to Hydrological Poverty
Lester R. Brown
At a time when drought in the United States, Ethiopia, and Afghanistan is
in the news, it is easy to forget that far more serious water shortages are
emerging as the demand for water in many countries simply outruns the supply.
Water tables are now falling on every continent. Literally scores of
countries are facing water shortages as water tables fall and wells go dry.
We live in a water-challenged world, one that is becoming more so each year
as 80 million additional people stake their claims to the Earth's water
resources.
Unfortunately, nearly all the projected 3 billion people to be added over
the next half century will be born in countries that are already
experiencing water shortages. Even now many in these countries lack enough
water to drink, to satisfy hygienic needs, and to produce food. By 2050,
India is projected to add 519 million people and China 211 million.
Pakistan is projected to add nearly 200 million, going from 151 million at
present to 348 million. Egypt, Iran, and Mexico are slated to increase
their populations by more than half by 2050. In these and other water-short
countries, population growth is sentencing millions of people to
hydrological poverty a local form of poverty that is difficult to escape.
Even with today's 6 billion people, the world has a huge water deficit.
Using data on overpumping for China, India, Saudi Arabia, North Africa, and
the United States, Sandra Postel, author of Pillar of Sand: Can the
Irrigation Miracle Last?, calculates the annual depletion of aquifers at
160 billion cubic meters or 160 billion tons. Using the rule of thumb that
it takes 1,000 tons of water to produce 1 ton of grain, this
160-billion-ton water deficit is equal to 160 million tons of grain or one
half the U.S. grain harvest.
At average world grain consumption of just over 300 kilograms or one third
of a ton per person per year, this would feed 480 million people. Stated
otherwise, 480 million of the world's 6 billion people are being fed wit
grain produced with the unsustainable use of water.
Overpumping is a new phenomenon, one largely confined to the last half
century. Only since the development of powerful diesel and electrically
driven pumps have we had the capacity to pull water out of aquifers faster
than it is replaced by precipitation. Some 70 percent of the water consumed
worldwide, including both that diverted from rivers and that pumped from
underground, is used for irrigation while some 20 percent is used by
industry, and 10 percent for residential purposes.
In the increasingly intense competition for water among sectors agriculture
almost always loses. The 1,000 tons of water used in India to produce 1 ton
of wheat worth perhaps $200 can also be used to expand industrial output by
easily $10,000, or 50 times as much. This ratio helps explain why, in the
American West, the sale of irrigation water rights by farmers to cities is
an almost daily occurrence.
In addition to population growth, urbanization and industrialization also
expand the demand for water. As developing country villagers, traditionally
reliant on the village well, move to urban high-rise apartment buildings
with indoor plumbing, their residential water use can easily triple.
Industrialization takes even more water than urbanization. Rising affluence
in itself generates additional demand for water. As people move up the food
chain, consuming more beef, pork, poultry, eggs, and dairy products, they
use more grain. A U.S. diet rich in livestock products requires 800
kilograms of grain per person a year, whereas diets in India, dominated by
a starchy food staple such as rice, typically need only 200 kilograms.
Using four times as much grain per person means using four times as much
water.
Once a localized phenomenon, water scarcity is now crossing national
borders via the international grain trade. The world's fastest growing
grain import market is North Africa and the Middle East, an area that
includes Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and the Middle East
through Iran. Virtually every country in this region is simultaneously
experiencing water shortages and rapid population growth.
As the demand for water in the region's cities and industries increases, it
is typically satisfied by diverting water from irrigation. The loss in food
production capacity is then offset by importing grain from abroad. Since 1
TON of grain represents 1,000 tons of water, this becomes the most
efficient way to import water. Last year, Iran imported 7 million tons of
wheat, eclipsing Japan to become the world's leading wheat importer. This
year, Egypt is also projected to move ahead of Japan. Iran and Egypt have
nearly 70 million people each. Both populations are increasing by more than
a million a year and both are pressing against the limits of their water
supplies.
The water required to produce the grain and other foodstuffs imported into
North Africa and the Middle East last year was roughly equal to the annual
flow of the Nile River. Stated otherwise, the fast-growing water deficit of
this region is equal to another Nile flowing into the region in the form of
imported grain. It is now often said that future wars in the region will
more likely be fought over water than oil. Perhaps, but given the
difficulty in winning a water war, the competition for water seems more
likely to take place in world grain markets. The countries that will "win"
in this competition will be those that are financially strongest, not those
that are militarily strongest.
The world water deficit grows larger with each year, making it potentially
more difficult to manage. If we decided abruptly to stabilize water tables
everywhere by simply pumping less water, the world grain harvest would fall
by some 160 million tons, or 8 percent, and grain prices would go off the
top of the chart. If the deficit continues to widen, the eventual
adjustment will be even greater.
Unless governments in water-short countries act quickly to stabilize
population and to raise water productivity, their water shortages may soon
become food shortages. The risk is that the growing number of water-short
countries, including China and India, with rising grain import needs will
overwhelm the exportable supply in food surplus countries, such as the
United States, Canada, and Australia. This in turn could destabilize world
grain markets.
Another risk of delay in dealing with the deficit is that some low-income,
water-short countries will not be able to afford to import needed grain,
trapping millions of their people in hydrological poverty, thirsty and
hungry, unable to escape.
Although there are still some opportunities for developing new water
resources, restoring the balance between water use and the sustainable
supply will depend primarily on demand-side initiatives, such as
stabilizing population and raising water productivity.
Governments can no longer separate population policy from the supply of
water. And just as the world turned to raising land productivity a half
century ago when the frontiers of agricultural settlement disappeared, so
it must now turn to raising water productivity. The first step toward this
goal is to eliminate the water subsidies that foster inefficiency.
The second step is to raise the price of water to reflect its cost.
Shifting to more water-efficient technologies, more water-efficient crops,
and more water-efficient forms of animal protein offer a huge potential for
raising water productivity. These shifts will move faster if the price of
water more closely reflects its value.
Copyright 2000 Worldwatch Institute www.worldwatch.org
For additional data and information, see www.worldwatch.org/chairman/
Distributed by Eduardo Athayde, Worldwatch Editor in Brazil, edu.fib@fib.br
member of GRB.
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Lori Pottinger, Director, Southern Africa Program,
and Editor, World Rivers Review
International Rivers Network
1847 Berkeley Way, Berkeley, California 94703, USA
Tel. (510) 848 1155 Fax (510) 848 1008
http://www.irn.org
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