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DAM-L SA aquifer article/LSS (fwd)



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Date: Wed, 3 Jan 2001 10:00:14 -0800
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From: Lori Pottinger <lori@irn.org>
Subject: SA aquifer article/LSS
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[Charset iso-8859-1 unsupported, filtering to ASCII...]
Underground water discovery may not save large-scale
agriculture

SouthScan

ANALYSIS
December 4, 2000

Johannesburg, South Africa

The Minister of Water Affairs and Forestry, Ronnie
Kasrils, last week disclosed the discovery of a a vast
aquifer stretching from the Western Cape nearly to
Port Elizabeth, about 700km away. The size of the
aquifer has been suggested by drilling tests and
hydro-geological studies, Kasrils said in opening the
30th congress of the International Association of
Hydro-geologists in Cape Town. He said the additional
water resources might be more valuable to the country
than its mineral wealth.

However, he indicated elsewhere that to save the
country from drying up large-scale agriculture would
have to be sacrificed. The implications of this course
- both politically, and in terms of the government's
macro-economic plan - have not been teased out inside
SA. The country still depends on good agri-business
sales - as this week's official GDP figures show.
There may, however, be an immediate political outcome
from Kasrils' announcement of the aquifer, which came
a week ahead of the local elections and in the midst
of African National Congress campaigns for local
government votes with a promise of free access to
water for the poor.

The announcement has focused fresh attention on the
looming water crisis that faces SA and the region. It
is now estimated that the country's consumption is
likely to outstrip supply in a few decades. Estimates
vary of when the country will reach a situation of
water deficit, ranging from around 2025 to 2050. The
department of water affair's own estimate is that this
will happen around 2030.

The discovery of the aquifer has not removed the
necessity for strategic planning in a region
increasingly liable to drought. Planners are
investigating the usual range of options. These
include building additional dams - a new dam is
already being planned for Cape Town - and extending
the importation of water from Lesotho and water-rich
rivers in neighbouring countries to the north. More
unusual options include desalination, recycling water
and even the old romantic idea of towing icebergs
north from the Antarctic.

But increasingly, the department seems to be accepting
the environmentalists' argument that it is impossible
to simply address the supply side by continually
mobilising additional resources. Instead, the thinking
is turning to ways of "balancing the books" by
managing demand.

In the firing line is not domestic demand, not even
suburban gardens and swimming pools. It is irrigation
agriculture, a sector that prospered under previous
governments through substantial government subsidies
and cheap water. A challenge to its long term future
is likely to grow into a political challenge to the
mainly white farming community and to big
agri-business. It may also be a challenge to the hopes
of developing a landed black farming class as part of
the government's land reform policies (SouthScan
v14/16). These aspects are not yet being teased out by
government.

Dams were among the major infrastructural projects
undertaken to create work for poor whites suffering
the effects of recession in the '30s. After the
National Party came to power in 1948, major irrigation
schemes were developed to benefit white farmers, a key
constituency.

Later, the need to achieve "food security" in the
teeth of increasing political isolation guaranteed
continued government support for irrigation
agriculture. Now the sector still uses 53% of South
Africa's water supply - often for minimal return. The
country pours vast quantities of precious water into
growing maize, which could be grown more far
efficiently closer to significant water sources like
the Limpopo River.

Kasrils argues that farming will have to move towards
crops that add more value - particularly products like
flowers and fruit that can be exported. More efficient
irrigation methods will have to be used, and lower
value goods that use a lot of water simply imported
from neighbouring countries.

The term being used is "virtual water trade" - the
notion that it is better to import the water
"embedded" in a product rather than the water itself.
In that sense, a ton of maize "contains" the 1,000
tons water it takes to produce as "virtual water".

The leverage which will be used to push farmers into
new directions will be market forces, says Kasrils.
This means simply charging more economic rates for
water than they currently pay. But he is quick to
stress that this is a long-term plan.

Kasrils has argued against the notion of treating
water just as an economic good, as encapsulated in the
World Water Vision which says that there should be
"full cost pricing of water services for all human
uses." He argues that water also has social value, and
that poor people have a right to free access to clean
water.

The ANC government is currently considering a proposal
on how to finance its campaign promise of free water
for the poor. Details have not yet been released, but
it is believed to rest heavily on the use of the
"equitable share" - a subsidy mechanism payable to
municipalities.

In richer towns, it is likely also to involve a
measure of cross-subsidisation between richer
consumers and poorer ones. This model, already being
used in Durban, where consumers get the first 6,000
litres per month free. The model has attracted much
attention but is only usable in cities with enough
wealthy consumers to do the cross-subsidising.

The schemes will be in the hands of local government.
However, critics have already pointed out that
municipal government is notoriously weak, and will
struggle to effectively implement them. It is also far
from clear how government intends to ensure that local
government actually uses the subsidy for the purpose
intended.

Finally, the proposal is tied to central government
handing over control of many water schemes to local
government - who will be left with the politically
thorny task of rationalising the overstaffed schemes.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Copyright _ 2000 SouthScan. Distributed by
allAfrica.com. For information about the content or
for permission to redistribute, publish or use for
broadcast, contact the publisher.



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-- 
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
       Lori Pottinger, Director, Southern Africa Program,
         and Editor, World Rivers Review
            International Rivers Network
               1847 Berkeley Way, Berkeley, California 94703, USA
                   Tel. (510) 848 1155   Fax (510) 848 1008
                         http://www.irn.org
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

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