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DAM-L Fwd: Energy sustainability indicators in SA (fwd)
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Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 09:51:56 -0800
To: irn-safrica@netvista.net
From: Lori Pottinger <lori@irn.org>
Subject: Fwd: Energy sustainability indicators in SA
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Email me if you want the full report. I've included the note from the
author and the exec. summary.
>From: "Randall Spalding-Fecher" <randall@energetic.uct.ac.za>
>
>Subject: Energy sustainability indicators in SA
>Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 18:20:37 +0200
>X-Priority: 3
>
>Dear Colleagues
>
>EDRC has recently completed a report on sustainability indicators in the
>South African energy sector, as part of the Sustainable Energy Watch (SEW)
>of the Helio International network. This report, prepared based on a set of
>global indicators developed by SEW, essentially rates South Africa on 8
>different indicators of sustainability in the energy sector. You can find
>out more about Helio on their webiste at www.globenet.org.helio
>
> The indicators are:
>
>Indicator 1: Per Capita Carbon Emissions
>Indicator 2: Most Significant Energy-Related Local Pollutant
>Indicator 3: Households with Access to Electricity
>Indicator 4: Clean Energy Investment
>Indicator 5: Resilience to External Impacts: Energy Trade
>Indicator 6: Burden of Government Energy Investments
>Indicator 7: Energy Intensity
>Indicator 8: Renewable Energy Deployment
>
>You will not be surprised to find out that South Africa does very well on 3,
>but not well at all 1 and 7. For the others, I will let you read for
>yourself!
>
>This is the first time we have attempted to apply these indicators to South
>Africa, and given the limited time available and data, there are bound to be
>gaps. We would welcome your feedback back both on the specific data and
>analysis presented, as well as how these indicators might be useful in
>relation to energy, environmental, and economic policy.
>
>Please contact us if you have any further questions.
>
>With best regards
>Randall
>
>
Executive Summary
This is the first Sustainable Energy Watch report for South Africa,
and the first attempt at a common set of energy sustainability
indicators for the country. Within the limits of time and data
availability, estimates have been developed for seven of the eight
indicators, and 1990 benchmarks are also included for three of the
indicators. For each of these indicators, the value of 1 is either
the global average or the historical trend for South Africa, while
the value of 0 is the sustainability target.
South Africa is the closet to the sustainability target on the
indicators for access to electricity (0.34) and resilience to
external impacts (energy exports) (0.09). The former reflects the
success of the ambitious mass electrification, which has been on the
key social and economic goals for the democratic government.
Government commitment to continue this programme, and provide
substantial funding for it, bodes well for continued improvements in
this indicator.
The low value for resilience to external impacts (energy exports) may
be somewhat misleading, however. While it is true that South Africa
is not as vulnerable to international energy markets as the OPEC
countries, there is significant concern in the country about how the
implementation of the Kyoto Protocol will affect the coal industry,
and the 61 000 workers that it employs. In fact, a report from the
International Energy Agency suggests that South Africa may be the
most vulnerable fossil fuel exporting country in the world to the
impacts of the Kyoto Protocol. South Africa will have to drop well
below 0.09 on this indicator therefore, before it is less vulnerable
to external impacts.
South Africa performs worst on the indicators for carbon emissions
per capita (2.47) and energy intensity (2.26). The reasons for the
energy intensity of the economy are described in more detail in the
body of this paper, and include heavy reliance on energy intensive
industries for domestic production and export, high dependence on
coal for primary energy, higher energy intensity of synthetic petrol
made from coal, low energy prices and the poor energy efficiency of
individual sectors. Continued high energy intensity is potentially a
competitive disadvantage for the South African economy, because it
can increase the cost of production (even considering the relatively
low energy prices in South Africa).
High carbon emissions intensity makes South Africa increasingly
vulnerable to pressure to take on some kind of commitment within
United Nations climate change negotiations process. Although South
Africa is still classified as a developing country, its emissions per
capita and per unit of GDP are considerably higher than most
developing countries. On the other hand, this emissions intensity
makes South Africa an attractive candidate for 'Clean Development
Mechanism' international investment projects, which could help to
move the country onto a lower emissions intensity path. Nevertheless,
government policy is urgently needed that address carbon emissions
intensity in way that also promotes development - for example,
through stimulating large scale investment in cost-effective energy
efficiency and diversifying South Africa's energy mix.
Investment in clean energy is only beginning in South Africa, so this
indicator is also still quite high (0.99). As discussed in this
paper, there are positive signs of both pubic and private sector
commitment to increase investment in renewable energy and energy
efficiency. The challenge is to maintain these goals through the
restructuring of the energy industry - particularly the electricity
industry - so that restructuring does not spell the end of clean
energy. The indicator for renewable energy deployment (1.04) also
reflects the long road ahead of South Africa in developing renewable
energy sources - and challenge to move beyond seeing these only as
solutions to remote area energy problems. Finally, while the
indicator for local pollution remains high (0.85), the significant
improvement since 1990 is encouraging.
In summary, the political commitments of the post-apartheid South
African government recognise the importance of equity in access to
affordable energy. Progress in this important area of sustainability
is a major accomplishment. The new South Africa, however, is full of
legacies from the old - including the energy intensive economic
structure and reliance on abundant domestic coal. This poses a major
challenge to policy makers, industry, and civil society. New policy
documents recognise the importance of these issues, but progress 'on
the ground' has been slow, and there are, at the same time,
conflicting policies that push South Africa away from sustainability.
Our hope is that these indicators, and the discussion of their
implications, will provide an useful starting point for stakeholders
to debate South Africa's future, and how co-ordinated policy and
concrete action can create a more sustainable energy sector that
supports the development and welfare of all South Africans.
--
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Lori Pottinger, Director, Southern Africa Program,
and Editor, World Rivers Review
International Rivers Network <'})))>><
1847 Berkeley Way, Berkeley, California 94703, USA
Tel. (510) 848 1155 Fax (510) 848 1008
http://www.irn.org
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