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DAM-L Fwd: Energy sustainability indicators in SA (fwd)



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Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 09:51:56 -0800
To: irn-safrica@netvista.net
From: Lori Pottinger <lori@irn.org>
Subject: Fwd: Energy sustainability indicators in SA
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Email me if you want the full report. I've included the note from the 
author and the exec. summary.

>From: "Randall Spalding-Fecher" <randall@energetic.uct.ac.za>
>
>Subject: Energy sustainability indicators in SA
>Date: Fri, 23 Mar 2001 18:20:37 +0200
>X-Priority: 3
>
>Dear Colleagues
>
>EDRC has recently completed a report on sustainability indicators in the
>South African energy sector, as part of the Sustainable Energy Watch (SEW)
>of the Helio International network.  This report, prepared based on a set of
>global indicators developed by SEW, essentially rates South Africa on 8
>different indicators of sustainability in the energy sector. You can find
>out more about Helio on their webiste at www.globenet.org.helio
>
>  The indicators are:
>
>Indicator 1: Per Capita Carbon Emissions
>Indicator 2: Most Significant Energy-Related Local Pollutant
>Indicator 3: Households with Access to Electricity
>Indicator 4: Clean Energy Investment
>Indicator 5: Resilience to External Impacts: Energy Trade
>Indicator 6: Burden of Government Energy Investments
>Indicator 7: Energy Intensity
>Indicator 8: Renewable Energy Deployment
>
>You will not be surprised to find out that South Africa does very well on 3,
>but not well at all 1 and 7.  For the others, I will let you read for
>yourself!
>
>This is the first time we have attempted to apply these indicators to South
>Africa, and given the limited time available and data, there are bound to be
>gaps.  We would welcome your feedback back both on the specific data and
>analysis presented, as well as how these indicators might be useful in
>relation to energy, environmental, and economic policy.
>
>Please contact us if you have any further questions.
>
>With best regards
>Randall
>
>
Executive Summary

This is the first Sustainable Energy Watch report for South Africa, 
and the first attempt at a common set of energy sustainability 
indicators for the country. Within the limits of time and data 
availability, estimates have been developed for seven of the eight 
indicators, and 1990 benchmarks are also included for three of the 
indicators. For each of these indicators, the value of 1 is either 
the global average or the historical trend for South Africa, while 
the value of 0 is the sustainability target.
South Africa is the closet to the sustainability target on the 
indicators for access to electricity (0.34) and resilience to 
external impacts (energy exports) (0.09). The former reflects the 
success of the ambitious mass electrification, which has been on the 
key social and economic goals for the democratic government. 
Government commitment to continue this programme, and provide 
substantial funding for it, bodes well for continued improvements in 
this indicator.

The low value for resilience to external impacts (energy exports) may 
be somewhat misleading, however. While it is true that South Africa 
is not as vulnerable to international energy markets as the OPEC 
countries, there is significant concern in the country about how the 
implementation of the Kyoto Protocol will affect the coal industry, 
and the 61 000 workers that it employs. In fact, a report from the 
International Energy Agency suggests that South Africa may be the 
most vulnerable fossil fuel exporting country in the world to the 
impacts of the Kyoto Protocol. South Africa will have to drop well 
below 0.09 on this indicator therefore, before it is less vulnerable 
to external impacts.

South Africa performs worst on the indicators for carbon emissions 
per capita (2.47) and energy intensity (2.26). The reasons for the 
energy intensity of the economy are described in more detail in the 
body of this paper, and include heavy reliance on energy intensive 
industries for domestic production and export, high dependence on 
coal for primary energy, higher energy intensity of synthetic petrol 
made from coal, low energy prices and the poor energy efficiency of 
individual sectors. Continued high energy intensity is potentially a 
competitive disadvantage for the South African economy, because it 
can increase the cost of production (even considering the relatively 
low energy prices in South Africa).

High carbon emissions intensity makes South Africa increasingly 
vulnerable to pressure to take on some kind of commitment within 
United Nations climate change negotiations process. Although South 
Africa is still classified as a developing country, its emissions per 
capita and per unit of GDP are considerably higher than most 
developing countries. On the other hand, this emissions intensity 
makes South Africa an attractive candidate for 'Clean Development 
Mechanism'  international investment projects, which could help to 
move the country onto a lower emissions intensity path. Nevertheless, 
government policy is urgently needed that address carbon emissions 
intensity in way that also promotes development - for example, 
through stimulating large scale investment in cost-effective energy 
efficiency and diversifying South Africa's energy mix.

Investment in clean energy is only beginning in South Africa, so this 
indicator is also still quite high (0.99). As discussed in this 
paper, there are positive signs of both pubic and private sector 
commitment to increase investment in renewable energy and energy 
efficiency. The challenge is to maintain these goals through the 
restructuring of the energy industry - particularly the electricity 
industry - so that restructuring does not spell the end of clean 
energy. The indicator for renewable energy deployment (1.04) also 
reflects the long road ahead of South Africa in developing renewable 
energy sources - and challenge to move beyond seeing these only as 
solutions to remote area energy problems. Finally, while the 
indicator for local pollution remains high (0.85), the significant 
improvement since 1990 is encouraging.

In summary, the political commitments of the post-apartheid South 
African government recognise the importance of equity in access to 
affordable energy. Progress in this important area of sustainability 
is a major accomplishment. The new South Africa, however, is full of 
legacies from the old - including the energy intensive economic 
structure and reliance on abundant domestic coal. This poses a major 
challenge to policy makers, industry, and civil society. New policy 
documents recognise the importance of these issues, but progress 'on 
the ground' has been slow, and there are, at the same time, 
conflicting policies that push South Africa away from sustainability. 
Our hope is that these indicators, and the discussion of their 
implications, will provide an useful starting point for stakeholders 
to debate South Africa's future, and how co-ordinated policy and 
concrete action can create a more sustainable energy sector that 
supports the development and welfare of all South Africans.

-- 
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
       Lori Pottinger, Director, Southern Africa Program,
         and Editor, World Rivers Review
            International Rivers Network   <'})))>><
               1847 Berkeley Way, Berkeley, California 94703, USA
                   Tel. (510) 848 1155   Fax (510) 848 1008
	   http://www.irn.org
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

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