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DAM-L Kasrils on 3Gorges (fwd)
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Date: Fri, 29 Jun 2001 10:11:34 -0700
To: irn-safrica@netvista.net
From: Ryan Hoover <ryan@irn.org>
Subject: Kasrils on 3Gorges
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Unbelievable comments from South Africa's Water Minister, Ronnie Kasrils,
on China's Three Gorges Dam.
*************************
China: Gorges dam, gorgeous project
China Daily; Jun 29, 2001
China today is a construction engineers' dream. At every turn, in every
city, bridges, highways, airports, water schemes, skyscrapers and factories
are being erected at a feverish pace to accommodate the accelerated urban
development that the country has enjoyed over the past 10 years.
Nowhere is this better symbolized than at the Three Gorges Dam on the
Yangtze River, which aims to tame the third-longest river in the world in
an area of remarkable scenic beauty.
The project will reduce floods, speed up navigation to the bustling city of
Chongqing - enabling it to become the world's largest inland harbour - and
allow water to be piped to Beijing and the arid northeast.
Turbines will generate enough clean hydro-electricity to eliminate the need
to burn 100 million tons of coal a year, sparing the environment of noxious
emissions.
The dam will hold 39 billion cubic metres of water. At a cost of US$27
billion, it will be the largest human-made construction project since the
Great Wall. This should propel China into the top ranks of the global economy.
If no other project is as large, there are also few which face social and
environmental challenges on this scale. Environmentalists have raised some
pressing, valid concerns.
These include the displacement of more than 1 million people, the
submergence of thousands of hectares of fertile farmland and scores of
cultural and archaeological sites of one of the world's great civilizations.
In understanding the issues, it is necessary to look at the broader context.
First is the question of size. The average population of each of China's 31
provinces equals that of South Africa. Its challenges are equally large.
Thus the damage caused by the regular floods on the Yangtze can be measured
by 300,000 lives lost in the last century, 900 million people constantly
under threat and 13 million moved to safety during the floods of 1998 which
traumatized Hubei Province's Wuhan and caused billions of dollars in damage.
China's development options must reflect its environmental constraints. In
many parts of China, the average rural family lives off of half a hectare.
Chinese farmers grow two or three crops a year in most areas. They farm
fish, vegetables and nursery plants for the cities and trade in an
apparently efficient market.
Yet the environmental impact of such intensive land use in dry areas or on
steep slopes is visible for all to see in the dust haze over Beijing and in
landslides on many hills.
In many areas, such intensive farming is simply not sustainable. Further,
as prosperity spreads, more houses are built, reducing the amount of
available land.
It is not hard to understand the development policy conclusions that have
been drawn.
If China is to remain a sustainable economy, it has to speed the transition
from a rural to an urban society, from an agricultural to an industrial
economy.
To do that, it must build cities, create jobs and provide services to those
cities.
Clean energy is a huge challenge for today's China, an emerging industrial
economy currently powered by coal.
Secure water supplies - and protection from natural disasters - are more
important for concentrated urban industrial than dispersed rural communities.
Efficient inland transport is critical if industrial development is not to
remain focused on the coast, neglecting the interior. Water resource
development has been identified by the Chinese Government as a top priority.
But can the society deal equitably with the hundreds of thousands of people
who will be affected?
Part of the answer is already visible - 600 kilometres of the Yangtze
valley is filled with huge construction of new towns and modern
infrastructure fuelled by taxes from urban wages. This proves this is not
just pie-in-the-sky.
Others will move to provinces where land is still available. Resettlement
is linked to new opportunities, with economic development and retraining in
job skills.
The cost of resettlement will amount to about 45 per cent of capital cost
of the project.
Having visited one of these new towns, I was impressed by people's
confidence and acceptance of this dramatic change in their lives.
I was repeatedly told by ordinary people on the streets that while the
elderly had regrets, the younger generations favoured change and conditions
of life had improved.
There are many skeptics, generally in the West and among environmentalists.
One of the most serious problems pointed to is the high degree of sediment
in the river and the danger of excessive build-up as a consequence of the dam.
Despite measures to re-route sediment in the flood season, large deposits
can be expected which some experts say can affect the functioning of the
dam, particularly the hydro-energy process.
But perhaps the key test of the project - and the key lesson for any
developing country - is that this vast infrastructure project only makes
sense in the context of a country's overarching social and economic
development policy.
Anywhere else but China, this would be dismissed as simply grandiose and
unattainable. But the Chinese can point to their history.
That history includes major water projects that have lasted for more than
2,000 years and still function well.
That history also features national projects that have swerved from one
side to the other but moved forward down the road of social and economic
progress.
Humanity has always sought to marshal the forces of nature. Pros and cons
have been carefully considered, and China has weighed the considerations.
A strategy has been devised, and the Three Gorges Dam is aimed at serving
that.
Water will begin to be stored in 2003. The river will then rise 135 metres,
and there will be no turning back. The project will be completed in 2009
when the river will have risen 175 metres. A body of water the size of Lake
Superior in the North America will stretch back about 660 kilometres to
Chongqing.
Meanwhile, archaeologists work feverishly against the clock to salvage as
much of China's ancient heritage as possible, including hidden treasures
buried in the Yangtze mud.
Whatever the regrets, China's leaders are confident that the project will
succeed because it is an element of an integrated national development plan.
We can only wish China well.
The author is the Water Affairs and Forestry Minister of South Africa.
Copyright ? Asia Intelligence Wire
Ryan Hoover
Africa Campaigns
1847 Berkeley Way
Berkeley, CA 94703
USA
Phone: (510) 848-1155 Fax: (510) 848-1008
www.irn.org
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