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DAM-L LHWP Phase 2 Killed Off by AIDS/LS (fwd)
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Date: Mon, 02 Jul 2001 15:39:46 -0700
To: irn-safrica@netvista.net
From: Ryan Hoover <ryan@irn.org>
Subject: LHWP Phase 2 Killed Off by AIDS/LS
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R9bn water project killed off by Aids
Lloyd Coutts
July 01 2001 at 12:03AM
Phase 2 of the Lesotho Water Highlands Project, worth between R6 billion
and R9 billion, may never be commissioned because of the Aids mortality
rate in South Africa, among other factors.
The water affairs department confirmed this week that 20 million people had
been discounted from current water demand projections, compared with the
original 1986 projections, because of expected Aids deaths.
The department said the latest study commissioned to review scenarios of
population and economic growth indicated that South Africa's population in
2025 might vary between 47 million and 50 million people, compared with
earlier projections of 67 million, because of the projected effect of
HIV/Aids.
But the department said the Aids mortality rate was not the only factor
that would determine the future of the project.
"Current estimates of future water demand are significantly lower than
estimated in the original 1986 projections. This is partly be-cause of the
changing nature of the economy.
"South Africa's approach to promote economic development at coastal nodal
points and the decline in the local gold industry have contributed to a
decrease in demand in the Vaal River area," it said.
The multibillion-rand Lesotho Highlands Water Project was born out of an
increased demand for water by a rapidly urbanising population, particularly
in Gauteng. South Africa entered into a treaty with Lesotho in 1986 to
service future requirements.
The 1986 projections showed that by 2000 Gauteng would accommodate nearly
42 per-cent of the urban population of South Africa. At the same time it
was expected to generate 56 percent of all industrial and 79 percent of all
mining input.
Phase 1A of the project was completed in 1998. It was designed to deliver
18 cubic metres a second of water to South Africa and generate 72 megawatts
of hydroelectricity for Lesotho, and included the construction of the Katse
and 'Muela Dams, an excavation of 82km of tunnels about 5m in diameter and
the construction of an underground power station.
Phase 1B (the Mohale Dam and Matsoku Diversion Dam) is under way, with an
expected completion date of 2003 and a final cost of between R4 billion and
R6 billion.
Phase 2 would have doubled the current transfer and delivery tunnel
network. Ronnie Kasrils, the water affairs and forestry minister, told the
National Council of Provinces recently that the department and participants
such as Rand Water had reassessed future demand scenarios.
It had been concluded that the next water scheme could be postponed by 10
years or more, or perhaps indefinitely.
The department said no decision had yet been taken on the development of
Phase 2. The water demand and supply in the Vaal River system was reviewed
regularly and decisions were taken "as appropriate".
Talks with the Lesotho government would form part of any such decision.
"A decision to augment the supplies to the Vaal River system will be
dictated by the combination of the projected demand figures, the current
analysis of hydrology as well as an evaluation of the management capacity
of providers of water services.
"On the supply side, a review conducted by the water affairs and forestry
department last year indicated that the yield of the Vaal River could be 20
percent lower than previously estimated," the department said.
Recent studies on the potential effect of climate change suggested that
there might have been an increase in evaporation and a decrease in rainfall
in the Vaal River area, which could cause a further decrease in the
reliable water supply available from the system.
"A final factor that impacts on the decision to augment the Vaal River
system is the water management capacity of water users.
"It is necessary to make continued assessments of the extent of reductions
in demand that could be achieved by the users without impacting on economic
activity or rendering services unaffordable or unacceptably unreliable," it
said.
To make the decision-making process more transparent, the department said
it had initiated the preparation of the national water resource strategy,
to be published later this year for public comment.
The postponement or even cancellation of further phases would have little
effect on local construction and related industries, said Merrill Lynch
analyst Peter Steyn. "Phase 2 is a lot less significant than the initial
phases."
Ryan Hoover
Africa Campaigns
1847 Berkeley Way
Berkeley, CA 94703
USA
Phone: (510) 848-1155 Fax: (510) 848-1008
www.irn.org
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