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From: Lori Pottinger <lori@irn.org>
Subject: global warming could make water more scarce/LS
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Global Warming Could Make Water A Scarce Resource
By Cat Lazaroff
OAKLAND, California, December 15, 2000 (ENS) - Global warming could have
serious impacts on water resources in the United States, and some of
those effects
are already being felt, a new report released today concludes. To
counter those
effects, government and water management officials must act now - a
prescription
that may be a hard sell under the new George W. Bush administration.
Those are the major conclusions of a two year study of the potential
impacts of
climate change on the nation's fresh and salt water systems.
"Water: The Potential Consequences of Climate
Variability and Change," concludes that climate
changes in this century may have serious
implications for U.S. water resources. In fact,
scientists are already observing changes in snow and rainfall,
freeze and thaw dates and runoff patterns,
attributable to global warming.
"Humans are changing the climate - the evidence is ... increasingly
compelling,"
said Peter Gleick, president of the Pacific Institute and the lead
author of the
study. The study was jointly released today by the nonprofit Pacific
Institute and
the U.S. Department of the Interior.
The report offers the first opportunity for water managers to access
information
that can help them make long term policy decisions, said David Hayes, deputy
secretary of the Interior Department.
"The report gives us both a positive and negative message," Hayes
said. On the
negative side, "yes, climate change is having important impacts" on
"critically
important" water and coastal resources.
Low lying areas like Jupiter
Beach, Florida face
flooding as sea levels rise.
(Photo by Marge Beaver
courtesy of NOAA)
"But it is not a 'sky is
falling' report that merely
paints a bleak picture,"
Hayes continued. "It gives
us an opportunity to plan
ahead."
The assessment caps more
than two years of work by
representatives of the
government, corporate and
non-governmental groups
to evaluate the implications
of both existing climate
variability and future
climate change on national water resources.
Scientists have determined that the buildup of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere over the past century, primarily from fossil fuel combustion, has
contributed to a temperature increase of about two-thirds of a
degree Celsius in
the United States, with 1998 the warmest year on record.
The report concludes that this has already resulted in substantial
thawing of the
permafrost in the Alaska Arctic and unprecedented melting of
mountain glaciers,
an increase in sea level of between 10 to 20 centimeters, and an
alteration of
water runoff patterns as a consequence of decreased snow and ice cover and
earlier melting.
High Alpine meadows like
this one in Steamboat
Springs, Colorado, could
disappear as the Earth
warms. (Photo courtesy High
Meadows Ranch)
Climate models predict that
temperatures could
increase another three to
six degrees Celsius by the
end of this century.
Warming of this magnitude could seriously affect U.S. water
resources, the new
report concludes.
Among the impacts outlined by the study are:
Snowfall and snowmelt will be significantly affected in the Sierra Nevada,
Rocky Mountains, and the Pacific Northwest, leading to changes in the
timing and magnitude of runoff. These changes could reduce the amount
of water available to drinking water reservoirs and for freshwater species.
Rising sea levels will threaten coastal aquifers and water supplies.
Vulnerable regions include Cape Cod, Long Island, the coastal aquifers of
the Carolinas and the central coast of California.
The risk of increased flooding may be as serious and widely distributed as
the expected impacts of droughts.
Changes associated with climate change, such as increases in lake and
stream temperatures, permafrost melting, and a reduction of water clarity,
could seriously threaten fish and water species and critical habitats such as
wetlands.
The study produced more than 40 new peer reviewed papers, and almost 1,000
more were evaluated and summarized. The report went through
extensive external
reviews, including reviews by the different assessment teams, a
diverse advisory
group, two separate formal external scientific review periods, and a
60 day public
comment period.
Melting permafrost could
affect birds that nest in the
Alaskan Arctic tundra, like this
long tailed jaeger (Photo
courtesy Pacific Northwest
National Laboratory)
Despite all the resources used
to produce the report, the
authors found they could not
predict specific effects for
particular regions with any
degree of certainty. Although
there are now a number of
highly sophisticated models for
predicting climate change
effects, they often disagree
about predictions on the
regional level.
"Even if the models said the same thing we should be somewhat skeptical,
because these models are not perfect," said Gleick. "We're very
confident that the
temperature is going to go up, and will continue to go up until we
get a handle on
our greenhouse gas emissions."
"This assessment was designed to be the first step," Gleick noted.
"Our hope is
that our ability to look at regional impacts will improve in the
coming decades."
"We think there will always be uncertainty," said Gleick. But "not
everything is
uncertain," he noted. "We know enough now to take some actions."
Changing snowfall patterns could
reduce the amount of runoff water
from spring thaws available to fill
reservoirs like Shasta Lake, behind
the Shasta Dam in California (Photo
courtesy NOAA)
Gleick emphasized the importance
of water conservation and efficiency
programs, and the need to look
beyond traditional options for water
supply options, such as dams and
reservoirs to potential alternative
sources of supply, including
wastewater reclamation and reuse and desalination.
"Sole reliance on traditional management responses is a mistake,"
Gleick argued.
"Water managers need to integrate possible climate change impacts into their
planning processes and to build flexibility into the system to
maximize our ability
to respond to changing conditions."
Gleick emphasized the need to focus on measures to reduce the risks
of climate
change and to develop effective ways to adapt to the inevitable changes.
"Water managers should begin now assessing how their resources could be
affected by climate change," said Gleick. "We're worried that if
they don't start
taking actions now, we're going to see the adverse effects of climate change
hitting us."
Fish like these rainbow trout
could be hurt by rising water
temperatures and changes in
the amount and timing of
spring runoff (Photo courtesy
Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory)
"One of the conclusions I take
form this report is that some of
our assumptions about water
availability for the future may
be misguided," said deputy
secretary Hayes. "Our country is
now looking for water resources
to be shared among competing
needs, including environmental
needs."
"We are on the threshold of some very major investments in water
infrastructure
throughout the country," Hayes said, citing the recently signed Everglades
restoration bill, which promises to spend $8 billion dollars to
reroute water within
the nation's largest wetlands.
But that effort could be derailed before it is begun. "Rising sea
level is going to be
a challenge to the Everglades," said Gleick, a consideration which
may not have
been given enough weight in drafting the 30 year restoration plan.
"It's a very
important issue to the Everglades," because the largely freshwater
wetlands are
"very sensitive" to sea level rise.
The massive San Francisco Bay Delta restoration project, another pet
project of the
Clinton administration, could face similar difficulties, Gleick
said. "They've not
adequately looked at" sea level rise from global warming, he said.
Most climate change models project between half a meter to a meter
of sea level
rise over 100 years, an amount which may not appear to be very large at face
value. But "the sea level rise we're talking about is faster than
any sea level rise
we've had to deal with in our civilization," Gleick warned.
"All of these efforts, as they proceed down a long path, need to now
take a hard
look at potential climate change impacts," said Hayes. "Climate
change is the new
kid on the block in terms of a new factor that ought to be taken into
consideration."
Texas Governor George W. Bush, the nation's new
President-elect, is expected to be less inclined to act
quickly on climate change issues than the current
administration (Photo courtesy Bush 2000)
However, the administration set to enter the White
House in January may not give much weight to
potential climate change effects. President Elect
George W. Bush is on record as opposing the Kyoto
Protocol, an international treaty aimed at reducing
greenhouse gas emissions.
Bush has also said he believes that more data must
be gathered before any action is taken to counter
climate change.
"We're about to have a new administration in town
that I'm afraid may not show the same sensitivity to
this problem that the current administration has
done," said Hayes.
Yet "part of this is independent of the next administration," noted
Gleick. "I think
no matter what, we're in for climate change. There is some
unavoidable climate
change coming. In that sense, it doesn't matter who the president
is, or who the
Interior secretary is."
"We do need to being to look at these things now, and if we don't the risk of
surprise is greater," Gleick continued. "The risk of being
blindsided is greater. It's
really time to begin integrating these issues into our long term planning."
The full report is available at: http://www.pacinst.org/naw.html
--
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Lori Pottinger, Director, Southern Africa Program,
and Editor, World Rivers Review
International Rivers Network
1847 Berkeley Way, Berkeley, California 94703, USA
Tel. (510) 848 1155 Fax (510) 848 1008
http://www.irn.org
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
--============_-1234945801==_ma============
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<html><head><style type="text/css"><!--
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--></style><title>global warming could make water more
scarce/LS</title></head><body>
<div><font face="Times New Roman" color="#000000">Approved:
flamenco</font></div>
<div><font face="Times" size="+1" color="#000000"><br>
Global Warming Could Make Water A Scarce Resource<br>
<br>
By Cat Lazaroff<br>
<br>
OAKLAND, California, December 15, 2000 (ENS) - Global warming
could have<br>
serious impacts on water resources in the United States, and
some of those effects<br>
are already being felt, a new report released today concludes.
To counter those<br>
effects, government and water management officials must act now
- a prescription<br>
that may be a hard sell under the new George W. Bush
administration.<br>
<br>
Those are the major conclusions of a two year study of the
potential impacts of</font></div>
<div><font face="Times" size="+1" color="#000000"> climate change
on the nation's fresh and salt water systems.</font></div>
<div><font face="Times" size="+1" color="#000000"> </font></div>
<div><font face="Times" size="+1" color="#000000"> "Water:
The Potential Consequences of Climate</font></div>
<div><font face="Times" size="+1" color="#000000"> Variability
and Change," concludes that climate</font></div>
<div><font face="Times" size="+1" color="#000000"> changes in
this century may have serious</font></div>
<div><font face="Times" size="+1" color="#000000"> implications
for U.S. water resources. In fact,</font></div>
<div><font face="Times" size="+1" color="#000000"> scientists are
already observing changes in snow and rainfall, freeze and thaw
dates and runoff patterns,<br>
attributable to global warming.<br>
<br>
"Humans are changing the climate - the evidence is ...
increasingly compelling,"<br>
said Peter Gleick, president of the Pacific Institute and the
lead author of the<br>
study. The study was jointly released today by the nonprofit
Pacific Institute and<br>
the U.S. Department of the Interior.<br>
<br>
The report offers the first opportunity for water managers to
access information<br>
that can help them make long term policy decisions, said David
Hayes, deputy<br>
secretary of the Interior Department.<br>
<br>
"The report gives us both a positive and negative message,"
Hayes said. On the<br>
negative side, "yes, climate change is having important
impacts" on "critically<br>
important" water and coastal resources.<br>
<br>
Low lying areas like Jupiter<br>
Beach, Florida face<br>
flooding as sea levels rise.<br>
(Photo by Marge Beaver<br>
courtesy of NOAA)<br>
<br>
"But it is not a 'sky is<br>
falling' report that merely<br>
paints a bleak picture,"<br>
Hayes continued. "It gives<br>
us an opportunity to plan<br>
ahead."<br>
<br>
The assessment caps more<br>
than two years of work by<br>
representatives of the<br>
government, corporate and<br>
non-governmental groups<br>
to evaluate the implications<br>
of both existing climate<br>
variability and future<br>
climate change on national water resources.<br>
<br>
Scientists have determined that the buildup of greenhouse gases
in the<br>
atmosphere over the past century, primarily from fossil fuel
combustion, has<br>
contributed to a temperature increase of about two-thirds of a
degree Celsius in<br>
the United States, with 1998 the warmest year on record.<br>
<br>
The report concludes that this has already resulted in
substantial thawing of the<br>
permafrost in the Alaska Arctic and unprecedented melting of
mountain glaciers,<br>
an increase in sea level of between 10 to 20 centimeters, and an
alteration of<br>
water runoff patterns as a consequence of decreased snow and ice
cover and<br>
earlier melting.<br>
<br>
High Alpine meadows like<br>
this one in Steamboat<br>
Springs, Colorado, could<br>
disappear as the Earth<br>
warms. (Photo courtesy High<br>
Meadows Ranch)<br>
<br>
Climate models predict that<br>
temperatures could<br>
increase another three to<br>
six degrees Celsius by the<br>
end of this century.<br>
Warming of this magnitude could seriously affect U.S. water
resources, the new<br>
report concludes.<br>
<br>
Among the impacts outlined by the study are:<br>
<br>
Snowfall and snowmelt will be significantly affected in the
Sierra Nevada,<br>
Rocky Mountains, and the Pacific Northwest, leading to changes
in the<br>
timing and magnitude of runoff. These changes could reduce the
amount<br>
of water available to drinking water reservoirs and for
freshwater species.<br>
Rising sea levels will threaten coastal aquifers and water
supplies.<br>
Vulnerable regions include Cape Cod, Long Island, the coastal
aquifers of<br>
the Carolinas and the central coast of California.<br>
The risk of increased flooding may be as serious and widely
distributed as<br>
the expected impacts of droughts.<br>
Changes associated with climate change, such as increases in
lake and<br>
stream temperatures, permafrost melting, and a reduction of
water clarity,</font></div>
<div><font face="Times" size="+1" color="#000000"> could
seriously threaten fish and water species and critical habitats such
as<br>
wetlands.<br>
<br>
The study produced more than 40 new peer reviewed papers, and
almost 1,000<br>
more were evaluated and summarized. The report went through
extensive external<br>
reviews, including reviews by the different assessment teams, a
diverse advisory<br>
group, two separate formal external scientific review periods,
and a 60 day public<br>
comment period.<br>
<br>
Melting permafrost could<br>
affect birds that nest in the<br>
Alaskan Arctic tundra, like this<br>
long tailed jaeger (Photo<br>
courtesy Pacific Northwest<br>
National Laboratory)<br>
<br>
Despite all the resources used<br>
to produce the report, the<br>
authors found they could not<br>
predict specific effects for<br>
particular regions with any<br>
degree of certainty. Although<br>
there are now a number of<br>
highly sophisticated models for<br>
predicting climate change<br>
effects, they often disagree<br>
about predictions on the<br>
regional level.<br>
<br>
"Even if the models said the same thing we should be
somewhat skeptical,<br>
because these models are not perfect," said Gleick.
"We're very confident that the<br>
temperature is going to go up, and will continue to go up until
we get a handle on<br>
our greenhouse gas emissions."<br>
<br>
"This assessment was designed to be the first step,"
Gleick noted. "Our hope is<br>
that our ability to look at regional impacts will improve in the
coming decades."<br>
<br>
"We think there will always be uncertainty," said
Gleick. But "not everything is<br>
uncertain," he noted. "We know enough now to take some
actions."<br>
<br>
Changing snowfall patterns could<br>
reduce the amount of runoff water<br>
from spring thaws available to fill<br>
reservoirs like Shasta Lake, behind<br>
the Shasta Dam in California (Photo<br>
courtesy NOAA)<br>
<br>
Gleick emphasized the importance<br>
of water conservation and efficiency<br>
programs, and the need to look<br>
beyond traditional options for water<br>
supply options, such as dams and<br>
reservoirs to potential alternative<br>
sources of supply, including<br>
wastewater reclamation and reuse and desalination.<br>
<br>
"Sole reliance on traditional management responses is a
mistake," Gleick argued.<br>
"Water managers need to integrate possible climate change
impacts into their<br>
planning processes and to build flexibility into the system to
maximize our ability<br>
to respond to changing conditions."<br>
<br>
Gleick emphasized the need to focus on measures to reduce the
risks of climate<br>
change and to develop effective ways to adapt to the inevitable
changes.<br>
<br>
"Water managers should begin now assessing how their
resources could be<br>
affected by climate change," said Gleick. "We're
worried that if they don't start<br>
taking actions now, we're going to see the adverse effects of
climate change<br>
hitting us."<br>
<br>
Fish like these rainbow trout<br>
could be hurt by rising water<br>
temperatures and changes in<br>
the amount and timing of<br>
spring runoff (Photo courtesy<br>
Pacific Northwest National<br>
Laboratory)<br>
<br>
"One of the conclusions I take<br>
form this report is that some of<br>
our assumptions about water<br>
availability for the future may<br>
be misguided," said deputy<br>
secretary Hayes. "Our country is<br>
now looking for water resources<br>
to be shared among competing<br>
needs, including environmental<br>
needs."<br>
<br>
"We are on the threshold of some very major investments in
water infrastructure<br>
throughout the country," Hayes said, citing the recently
signed Everglades<br>
restoration bill, which promises to spend $8 billion dollars to
reroute water within<br>
the nation's largest wetlands.<br>
<br>
But that effort could be derailed before it is begun.
"Rising sea level is going to be<br>
a challenge to the Everglades," said Gleick, a
consideration which may not have<br>
been given enough weight in drafting the 30 year restoration
plan. "It's a very<br>
important issue to the Everglades," because the largely
freshwater wetlands are<br>
"very sensitive" to sea level rise.<br>
<br>
The massive San Francisco Bay Delta restoration project, another
pet project of the<br>
Clinton administration, could face similar difficulties, Gleick
said. "They've not<br>
adequately looked at" sea level rise from global warming,
he said.</font></div>
<div><font face="Times" size="+1" color="#000000"><br>
Most climate change models project between half a meter to a
meter of sea level<br>
rise over 100 years, an amount which may not appear to be very
large at face<br>
value. But "the sea level rise we're talking about is
faster than any sea level rise<br>
we've had to deal with in our civilization," Gleick
warned.<br>
<br>
"All of these efforts, as they proceed down a long path,
need to now take a hard<br>
look at potential climate change impacts," said Hayes.
"Climate change is the new<br>
kid on the block in terms of a new factor that ought to be taken
into<br>
consideration."<br>
<br>
Texas Governor George W. Bush, the nation's new<br>
President-elect, is expected to be less inclined to act<br>
quickly on climate change issues than the current<br>
administration (Photo courtesy Bush 2000)<br>
<br>
However, the administration set to enter the White<br>
House in January may not give much weight to<br>
potential climate change effects. President Elect<br>
George W. Bush is on record as opposing the Kyoto<br>
Protocol, an international treaty aimed at reducing<br>
greenhouse gas emissions.<br>
<br>
Bush has also said he believes that more data must<br>
be gathered before any action is taken to counter<br>
climate change.<br>
<br>
"We're about to have a new administration in town<br>
that I'm afraid may not show the same sensitivity to<br>
this problem that the current administration has<br>
done," said Hayes.<br>
<br>
Yet "part of this is independent of the next
administration," noted Gleick. "I think<br>
no matter what, we're in for climate change. There is some
unavoidable climate<br>
change coming. In that sense, it doesn't matter who the
president is, or who the<br>
Interior secretary is."<br>
<br>
"We do need to being to look at these things now, and if we
don't the risk of<br>
surprise is greater," Gleick continued. "The risk of
being blindsided is greater. It's<br>
really time to begin integrating these issues into our long term
planning."<br>
<br>
The full report is available at:
http://www.pacinst.org/naw.html<br>
<br>
</font></div>
<div>-- <br>
:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::<span
></span>:::<br>
Lori Pottinger, Director, Southern
Africa Program,<br>
and Editor, World Rivers
Review<br>
International Rivers Network<br>
<span
></span> 1847 Berkeley Way, Berkeley, California 94703,
USA<br>
<span
></span> Tel. (510) 848
1155 Fax (510) 848 1008<br>
<span
></span
>
http://www.irn.org<br>
:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::<span
></span>:::</div>
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